Can Restore Britain Surprise in Makerfield? The Battle to Engage Disillusioned Voters
The Makerfield by-election has quickly become one of the most closely watched contests in British politics. While the main battle is widely expected to be between Labour and Reform UK, Restore Britain’s decision to stand has sparked debate about whether they will simply split the anti-Labour vote or whether they can make a meaningful impact.
Many commentators have dismissed Restore Britain as vote-splitters who will only damage Reform’s chances. However, there are signs that their campaign may be resonating more strongly than expected, particularly among working-class voters who have long been disengaged from politics.
The Numbers: Poll vs Canvassing Data
A recent poll in Makerfield put Labour on 43%, Reform UK on 40%, and Restore Britain on just 7%. However, the sample size was small — only 369 people — in a constituency with around 75,000 voters. This has led some to question how reliable the figures really are.
In response, Rupert Lowe published Restore Britain’s own canvassing returns from door-knocking in the constituency. According to their data, based on a sample of over 1,000 voters:
- 24.6% said they would vote for Restore Britain
- 24.2% were undecided
- 20% were considering them
- 31.2% said they would not vote for them
While parties naturally present their own data in the most favourable light, the gap between the poll and Restore’s canvassing returns is significant. It suggests either that the poll is underestimating support for smaller parties, or that Restore is connecting with voters in ways that traditional polling has missed.
Lessons from Great Yarmouth
Restore Britain’s performance in Makerfield is being closely compared to Reform UK’s results in Great Yarmouth. In those local elections, Reform won all 10 seats they contested with nearly 50% of the vote in each ward.
While Makerfield is a different type of seat and Restore has not previously campaigned there, Great Yarmouth demonstrated what can happen when a party focuses its resources and energy in one area. It showed that smaller parties can punch well above their weight when they mobilise effectively on the ground.
Restore’s Real Strength: Reaching Non-Voters
The most interesting aspect of Restore Britain’s campaign is not necessarily how many Reform voters they are taking, but how many people they are reaching who have stopped voting altogether.
Many working-class voters in seats like Makerfield have become deeply disillusioned with Westminster. They see politics as a rigged game and have simply checked out. Traditional parties have struggled to re-engage these voters for years.
Restore Britain appears to be having some success in making politics feel relevant again to this group. Their canvassing data suggests stronger support in working-class areas, while finding it harder in more affluent neighbourhoods. This pattern reflects a broader shift in British politics, where many traditional Labour voters feel abandoned by the party they once supported.
Will They Make a Real Impact?
It remains unlikely that Restore Britain will win the Makerfield by-election. Labour and Reform UK are still expected to take the vast majority of the vote. However, a strong showing — particularly if they can exceed the 7% suggested in early polling — would send a clear message.
Even without winning, a respectable result would demonstrate that there is space in British politics for a party willing to speak directly to working-class concerns without the baggage of the established parties. It would also show that there is an appetite for something beyond the current binary choice between Labour and Reform.
The Bigger Picture
The Makerfield by-election is about more than just one seat. It is becoming a test of whether new political movements can break through by engaging the large number of people who have stopped participating in elections altogether.
If Restore Britain can convert even a portion of the undecided and disengaged voters they are speaking to, they could achieve something significant — not necessarily victory, but proof that they represent a genuine force rather than a fringe protest.
Whether they ultimately succeed in making a lasting impact will depend on how well they perform on the ground over the coming weeks. But early signs suggest that writing them off as simple vote-splitters may be premature.
